A supercomputer has made its prediction for the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the forecast offers a mixed outlook for Morocco’s Atlas Lions.
The statistical model, developed by Nielsen’s Gracenote, simulates the tournament one million times to calculate each nation’s probability of success. According to these projections, reigning champions Argentina are the favorites to lift the trophy again, being given a 15% chance of victory.
France and England follow closely behind, with the 2018 champions and the 2020 European Championship runners-up each assigned a 12% probability of winning the World Cup.
The analysis reveals a challenging path for Morocco, who made history by reaching the semi-finals in Qatar 2022. The supercomputer gives Walid Regragui’s side just a 1% chance of becoming world champions in 2026. This places them 20th in the overall rankings, behind nations like the United States (2%) and Canada (1%), who will co-host the tournament alongside Mexico.
Despite the long odds, the Moroccan national team is expected to advance from the group stage, with the model giving them a 61% chance of reaching the round of 16. Their probability of making it to the quarter-finals is rated at 26%, while the chance of another semi-final appearance is set at 10%.
The 2026 World Cup will be the first to feature 48 teams, expanding from the previous 32-team format. The tournament will be held across 16 cities in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
